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|a Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple
global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the
Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and
the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results
indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at
higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include
explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven
GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration
pathways, model agreement on direction of yield
changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low
and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response
in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties
related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high
temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research
is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate
change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation
strategies. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15050342/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/05/03/42/00001/FI15050342_thm.jpg |
