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|a Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Macmillan Publishers Limited, |c 2012-03-25. |
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|a Nature Geosciences Volume 5. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate
system—equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat
uptake and historical aerosol forcing—and the physical processes
underlying them lead to uncertainties in our assessment
of the global-mean temperature evolution in the twenty-first
century1,2. Explorations of these uncertainties have so far
relied on scaling approaches3,4, large ensembles of simplified
climate models1,2, or small ensembles of complex coupled
atmosphere–ocean general circulation models5,6 which
under-represent uncertainties in key climate system properties
derived from independent sources7–9. Here we present results
from a multi-thousand-member perturbed-physics ensemble
of transient coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation
model simulations. We find that model versions that reproduce
observed surface temperature changes over the past
50 years show global-mean temperature increases of 1.4–3 K
by 2050, relative to 1961–1990, under a mid-range forcing
scenario. This range of warming is broadly consistent with
the expert assessment provided by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report10, but
extends towards larger warming than observed in ensemblesof-
opportunity5 typically used for climate impact assessments.
From our simulations, we conclude that warming by the middle
of the twenty-first century that is stronger than earlier
estimates is consistent with recent observed temperature
changes and a mid-range ‘no mitigation’ scenario for
greenhouse-gas emissions. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a temperature changes,global. |
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|a Earth (Planet)--Surface temperature. |
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|a Benjamin M. Sanderson. |
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|t Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15050341/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 FULL TEXT- Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble |u https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1430 |y Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/05/03/41/00001/FI15050341_thm.jpg |
