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|a Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Macmillan Publishers Limited, |c 2014-03-09. |
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|a Nature Climate Change. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting
climate change in response to a given forcing scenario.
Recent analyses 1–3 have suggested that transient climate
sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range
taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past
10–15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In
contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with
observations indicate that the most realistic models have
higher sensitivities5. Here I analyse results from recent
climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate
that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and
ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate
sensitivity to CO2.This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused
by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere
middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land
responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for
this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and
I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate
response to CO2 in present models and assessments (alt 1.3 [degrees]C.
is very unlikely. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a global temperature changes. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15050304/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/05/03/04/00001/FI15050304_thm.jpg |
