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|a Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Incomplete global coverage is a potential source of bias in global temperature
reconstructions if the unsampled regions are not uniformly distributed over
the planet’s surface. The widely used HadCRUT4 dataset covers on average
about 84% of the globe over recent decades, with the unsampled regions being
concentrated at the poles and over Africa. Three existing reconstructions with
near-global coverage are examined, each suggesting that HadCRUT4 is subject
to bias due to its treatment of unobserved regions.
Two alternative approaches for reconstructing global temperatures are
explored, one based on an optimal interpolation algorithm and the other
a hybrid method incorporating additional information from the satellite
temperature record. The methods are validated on the basis of their skill at
reconstructing omitted sets of observations. Both methods provide superior
results than excluding the unsampled regions, with the hybrid method showing
particular skill around the regions where no observations are available.
Temperature trends are compared for the hybrid global temperature
reconstruction and the raw HadCRUT4 data. The widely quoted trend since
1997 in the hybrid global reconstruction is two and a half times greater than
the corresponding trend in the coverage-biased HadCRUT4 data. Coverage
bias causes a cool bias in recent temperatures relative to the late 1990s which
increases from around 1998 to the present. Trends starting in 1997 or 1998 are
particularly biased with respect to the global trend. The issue is exacerbated
by the strong El Ni˜no event of 1997-1998, which also tends to suppress trends
starting during those years. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15042693/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/04/26/93/00001/FI15042693_thm.jpg |
