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|a The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b American Geophysical Union, |c 2014. |
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|a Geophysical Research Letters. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a A multiple linear regression analysis of global annual mean near-surface air temperature
(1900–2012) using the known radiative forcing and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation index as explanatory
variables account for 89% of the observed temperature variance. When the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
(AMO) index is added to the set of explanatory variables, the fraction of accounted for temperature variance
increases to 94%. The anthropogenic effects account for about two thirds of the post-1975 global warming with
one third being due to the positive phase of the AMO. In comparison, the Coupled Models Intercomparison
Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble mean accounts for 87% of the observed global mean temperature variance.
Some of the CMIP5 models mimic the AMO-like oscillation by a strong aerosol effect. These models simulate
the twentieth century AMO-like cycle with correct timing in each individual simulation. An inverse structural
analysis suggests that these models generally overestimate the greenhouse gases-induced warming, which is
then compensated by an overestimate of anthropogenic aerosol cooling. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a. |z Atlantic Ocean Region |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15042679/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/04/26/79/00001/FI15042679_thm.jpg |
