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|a Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry |h [electronic resource] |b Caribbean case study. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Springer, |c 2011. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Climatic change threatens the future of coral reefs in the Caribbean and
the important ecosystem services they provide. We used a simulation model [Combo
(“COral Mortality and Bleaching Output”)] to estimate future coral cover in the
part of the eastern Caribbean impacted by a massive coral bleaching event in 2005.
Combo calculates impacts of future climate change on coral reefs by combining
impacts from long-term changes in average sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean
acidification with impacts from episodic high temperature mortality (bleaching)
events.We used mortality and heat dose data from the 2005 bleaching event to select
historic temperature datasets, to use as a baseline for running Combo under different
future climate scenarios and sets of assumptions. Results suggest a bleak future for
coral reefs in the eastern Caribbean. For three different emissions scenarios from
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; B1, A1B, and A1FI), coral
cover on most Caribbean reefs is projected to drop below 5% by the year 2035, if
future mortality rates are equivalent to some of those observed in the 2005 event
(50%). For a scenario where corals gain an additional 1–1.5◦C of heat tolerance
through a shift in the algae that live in the coral tissue, coral cover above 5% is
prolonged until 2065. Additional impacts such as storms or anthropogenic damage
could result in declines in coral cover even faster than those projected here. These
results suggest the need to identify and preserve the locations that are likely to have
a higher resiliency to bleaching to save as many remnant populations of corals as
possible in the face of projected wide-spread coral loss. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15042667/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/04/26/67/00001/Buddemeier et al_2011_Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in oceant |
