Decision-scaling for Robust Planning and Policy under Climate Uncertainity
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Material Information

Title:
Decision-scaling for Robust Planning and Policy under Climate Uncertainity
Series Title:
World Resources Report
Creator:
Casey Brown
Affiliation:
University of Massachusetts
Publisher:
World Resources Institute
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
climate change
natural disasters
growth, economic

Notes

Abstract:
According to conventional wisdom, planning for the future is becoming more difficult due to anthropogenic climate change. As the story goes, it is possible that a plan may be made anticipating one climate future and then disaster results when another future climate unfolds. In practice, it is often possible to assess risks and develop robust strategies that arise due to climate uncertainties through a systematic approach to analysis of the decision at hand. However, there is currently a lack of methodology for gleaning decision-relevant information from the spectrum of available projections of the future. In this paper a methodology is described for planning under climate uncertainty and for the development of robust adaptation strategies. In the case of climate change, where the future is deeply uncertain and there is a vast array of data relating visions of the future, the usual approach to science-based decision making may not be effective. In the usual science-based approach, attempts are made to reduce the uncertainty of the future and planning is based on some best guess of the most likely scenario. The approach described here relies on a fundamental reversal of the usual focus of science-based decision making, that is, the quest to reduce uncertainty and select an optimal plan for the likely future. The underlying philosophy is one of accepting irreducible uncertainty and identifying strategies that will perform well over a wide range of climate futures. When considering the possible effects of climate change on planning and policy making, one particular truth often emerges: plans and policies of the present face considerable risks due to present climate variability. This is particularly true in developing nations and especially those located in the tropics where climate variability is strongest (Brown and Lall, 2006). Climate variability has been shown to be a significant impediment to economic growth globally (Brown et al., 2010a) and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (Brown et al., 2010b). Thus planning specifically for climate change should begin with addressing the current climate risks that a society faces. There remains much that can be done to reduce societal exposure to climate risks such as floods, droughts and other extreme weather events. Investments that reduce the current impacts of climate variability are very likely to be the best adaptation decisions a planner can make.

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Source Institution:
Florida International University
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Sea Level Rise