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|a Beyond 'dangerous' climate change |h [electronic resource] |b emission scenarios for a new world. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b The Royal Society, |c 2011. |
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|a Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community’s commitment to ‘hold
the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius’. Yet its preferred focus
on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to
cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary
to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-
Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received,
and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses
a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to
understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India,
for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements
to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface
temperature at or below 2◦C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2◦C have been
revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2◦C now more appropriately represents the threshold
between ‘dangerous’ and ‘extremely dangerous’ climate change. Ultimately, the science of
climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations
suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from
that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a Greenhouse gas mitigation. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15042631/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/04/26/31/00001/Anderson_Bows_2011_Beyond 'dangerous' climate changethm.jpg |
