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|a Rethinking adaptation for a 4C world |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b The Royal Society, |c 2011. |
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|a Philosophical Transactions of Royal Society. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world
will experience 4◦C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions
that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become
more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4◦C cannot be seen as
a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2◦C; it will be a more substantial, continuous
and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional
barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the
danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and
uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions
between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change
and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues
previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of
risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some
barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making.
The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15042596/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/04/25/96/00001/FI15042596_thm.jpg |
