Rethinking adaptation for a 4C world
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Material Information

Title:
Rethinking adaptation for a 4C world
Series Title:
Philosophical Transactions of Royal Society
Creator:
Mark Stafford Smith
Lisa Horrocks
Alex Harvey
Clive Hamilton
Affiliation:
CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship
AEA Group
AEA Group
Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics
Publisher:
The Royal Society
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Notes

Abstract:
With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4◦C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4◦C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2◦C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly. ( English )

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Florida International University
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