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|a New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury |h [electronic resource] |y English. |
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|a Proceedings of the National Academy of Science. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together
with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the
future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic
shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However,
numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea
ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address
this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea
ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios
[representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two
vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September)
Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice
conditions enable expanded September navigability for common
open-water ships crossing the Arctic along the Northern
Sea Route over the Russian Federation, robust new routes for
moderately ice-strengthened (Polar Class 6) ships over the North
Pole, and new routes through the Northwest Passage for both
vessel classes. Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also
limit Arctic shipping potential, these findings have important
economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications
for the region. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a marine transportation. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15042594/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/04/25/94/00001/FI15042594_thm.jpg |
