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|a Probabilistic forecast for 21st century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b American Meteorological Society, |c 2009. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a The MIT Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate
change from 1861 to 2100. Since the model’s first projections were published in 2003 substantial
improvements have been made to the model and improved estimates of the probability
distributions of uncertain input parameters have become available. The new projections are
considerably warmer than the 2003 projections, e.g., the median surface warming in 2091 to
2100 is 5.2oC compared to 2.4oC in the earlier study. Many changes contribute to the stronger
warming; among the more important ones are taking into account the cooling in the second half
of the 20th century due to volcanic eruptions for input parameter estimation and a more
sophisticated method for projecting GDP growth which eliminated many low emission scenarios.
However, if recently published data, suggesting stronger 20th century ocean warming, are used to
determine the input climate parameters, the median projected warning at the end of the 21st
century is only 4.1oC. Nevertheless all our simulations have a much smaller probability of
warming less than 2.4oC, than implied by the lower bound of the IPCC AR4 projected likely
range for the A1FI scenario, which has forcing very similar to our median projection.. The
probability distribution for the surface warming produced by our analysis is more symmetric
than the distribution assumed by the IPCC due to a different feedback between the climate and
the carbon cycle, resulting from the inclusion in our model of the carbon-nitrogen interaction in
the terrestrial ecosystem. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a carbon cycle (biogeochemistry). |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15042591/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/04/25/91/00001/FI15042591thm.jpg |
