Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions
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Material Information

Title:
Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions
Series Title:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA
Creator:
Susan Solomon
Gian-Kasper Plattner
Reto Knutti
Pierre Friedlingstein
Affiliation:
Earth System Research Laboratory -- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration -- Chemical Sciences Division
Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace
Publisher:
National Academy of Sciences of the USA
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Notes

Abstract:
The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450–600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the ‘‘dust bowl’’ era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4 –1.0 m if 21st century CO2 concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6 –1.9 m for peak CO2 concentrations exceeding [approximately]1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer.

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Source Institution:
Florida International University
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Sea Level Rise