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|a Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Macmillan Publishers Limited, |c 2012-05-13. |
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|a Nature Climate Change Volume 2. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Assessing potential changes in North Atlantic (NA) tropical
storm (TS) activity this century is of paramount societal
and economic significance, and the topic of intense scientific
research1. We explore projections of NA TS changes over
the twenty-first century by applying a statistical downscaling
methodology2,3 to a suite of experiments with the latest stateof-
the-art global coupled climate models4. We also apply a
methodology5 to partition the dominant sources of uncertainty
in the TS projections. We find that over the first half of the
twenty-first century radiative forcing changes act to increase
NA TS frequency; this increase arises from radiative forcings
other than increasing CO2 (probably aerosols). However, NA
TS trends over the entire twenty-first century are of ambiguous
sign. We find that for NA TS frequency, in contrast to sea
surface temperature (SST), the largest uncertainties are driven
by the chaotic nature of the climate system and by the climate
response to radiative forcing. These results highlight the
need to better understand the processes controlling patterns
of SST change in response to radiative forcing and internal
climate variability to constrain estimates of future NA TS
activity. Coordinated experiments isolating forcing agents in
projections should improve our understanding, and would
enable better assessment of future TS activity. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|t Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15042531/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|3 FULL TEXT- Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models |u https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1530 |y Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/04/25/31/00001/FI15042531_thm.jpg |
