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|a Projected Increases in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensity from CMIP5 Models |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b American Meteorological Society, |c 2012-10-24. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Tropical cyclones—particularly intense ones—are a hazard to life and property, so an assessment of the
changes in North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity has important socioeconomic implications. In this study,
the authors focus on the seasonally integrated power dissipation index (PDI) as a metric to project changes in
tropical cyclone intensity. Based on a recently developed statistical model, this study examines projections in
North Atlantic PDI using output from 17 state-of-the-art global climate models and three radiative forcing
scenarios. Overall, the authors find thatNorth Atlantic PDI is projected to increase with respect to the 1986–2005
period across all scenarios. The difference between the PDI projections and those of the number of North
Atlantic tropical cyclones, which are not projected to increase significantly, indicates an intensification of
North Atlantic tropical cyclones in response to both greenhouse gas (GHG) increases and aerosol changes
over the current century. At the end of the twenty-first century, the magnitude of these increases shows
a positive dependence on projected GHG forcing. The projected intensification is significantly enhanced by
non-GHG (primarily aerosol) forcing in the first half of the twenty-first century. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15042530/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/04/25/30/00001/FI15042530_thm.jpg |
