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245 00 |a Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change |h [electronic resource].
260        |a [S.l.] : |b Macmillan Publishers Limited, |c 2011-11-21.
506        |a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights.
520 3    |a Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change1, 2. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing3, 4, 5. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.
533        |a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software.
650        |a climate change.
650        |a plant phenology.
650        |a sensitivity theory.
700        |a E.M. Wolkovich.
700        |a B.I. Cook.
700        |a J.M. Cook.
700        |a T.M. Crimmins.
700        |a J.L. Betancourt.
700        |a S.E. Travers.
700        |a S. Pau.
700        |a J. Regetz.
700        |a T.J. Davies.
700        |a N.J.B. Kraft.
700        |a T.R. Ault.
700        |a K. Bolmgren.
700        |a S.J. Mazer.
700        |a G.J. McCabe.
700        |a B.J. McGill.
700        |a C. Parmesan.
700        |a N. Salamin.
700        |a M.D. Schwartz, |e conference.
700        |a E.E. Cleland.
773 0    |t Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change
830    0 |a dpSobek.
830    0 |a Sea Level Rise.
852        |a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise
856 40 |u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15042512/00001 |y Click here for full text
856 42 |3 FULL TEXT- Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change |u https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v485/n7399/full/nature11014.html |y Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change
992 04 |a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/04/25/12/00001/FI15042512_thm.jpg
997        |a Sea Level Rise


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