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|a Climate change and the future impact of storm-surge disasters in developing countries |h [electronic resource] |y English. |
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|a Washington, DC : |b Center for Global Development, |c 2009-09. |
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|a Working papers |n 182 |y English. |
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|a Use and dissemination of this Working Paper is encouraged; however, reproduced copies may not be used for commercial purposes. Further usage is permitted under the terms of the Creative Commons License. |
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|a Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Murray, S., Wheeler, D. (2009). Climate change and the future impacts of storm-surge disasters in developing countries. Prevention, Center for Global Development. |
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|a Climate Change and the Future Impacts of Storm-Surge Disasters in Developing Countries argues that there is evidence that global climate change is enhancing the intensity of storm surges in terms of the distances inland that they threaten. The document points to two factors: rising sea levels as a result of melting polar ice, and the amplification of hurricanes due to warming ocean waters. It contends that since the mid-1970s there has been a strong correlation between rising ocean surface temperatures and cyclones that are longer in duration and stronger in intensity. Compounding these trends are rapid population increases in urban areas of developing countries around the world, which are often located along vulnerable coastlines. The research looks at 577 coastal cities with populations over 100,000 in 84 developing countries and the probable distribution of impact across them, information that could be used by local and national leaders along with international organizations to help mitigate risks. Utilizing the geographic information system (GIS), researchers were able to determine exposure of territories, populations, economic activity, etc., by juxtaposing them against two different projections of inundation zones. The first projection uses a rather large 1-in-100-year storm surge, while the second uses the result of a 10% future increase over 100 years. Analysis showed that about 20% of their total coastal territory is vulnerable to a 1-in-100-year storm serge, while a 10% intensification pushes that number up to nearly 26%, which signifies the inundation of an additional 52 million people, 15 square km of city, 29,000 square km of agriculture, and an added 9% of GDP. Increase in the storm-surge area is greatest for Latin America and the Caribbean at about 35%. Population exposure is largest for the Middle East and North Africa, with an additional 56% of their citizenry subject to storm-surge hazard, while coastal GDP exposure is highest in East Asia at 51%, resulting in a loss of about $84.9 billion. An important finding was that vulnerability to storm-surge was not even across cities. Only 3 of 577 cities accounted for 25% of future population exposure, while 10 accounted for 53%. |
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|a Climate Change and Disasters |
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|a 1. Introduction p. 1; 2. Global Warming, Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Disaster Preparedness p. 3; 3. Research Strategy and Data Sources p. 4; 4. Methodology p. 6; 5. Country Results p. 10; 6. City Results: 6.1 Coastal Area Vulnerability p. 12; 6.2 Population Vulnerability p. 13; 7. Conclusions p. 14; References p. 16; Table 1: Percent of National Population in Coastal Cities,
1980 – 2000 p. 19; Table 2: Summary of Data Sources p. 19; Table 3: Impacts of Intensification of Storm Surges Across Indicators at the Global Level p. 20; Table 4: Top 10 Countries at Risk From Intensification of Storm Surges p. 21; Table 5: Future Storm-Surge Impacts on Coastal Areas: Regional Top-10 Cities p. 22; Table 6: Top-25 City Population Impacts p. 24; Figure 1: Incremental Impact of Selected Indicators of Storm Surges (Percentage) p. 25; Figure 2: Impact Zones for 1 Meter Sea-Level Rise and Intensification of Storm Surges, and Likely Changes in Unprotected Shorelines p. 26 |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2013. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a Climate change |x Developing countries. |
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|a Natural hazards and disasters |x Developing countries. |
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|a Dasgupta, Susmita |g Lead Economist |u World Bank. |
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|a Laplante, Benoit |g Consultant |u World Bank. |
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|a Murray, Siobhan |g Consultant |u World Bank. |
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|a Wheeler, David |g Senior Fellow |u Center for Global Development. |
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|a Disaster Risk Reduction Program, Florida International University (DRR/FIU), |e summary contributor. |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI13042447/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/13/04/24/47/00001/FI13042447thm.jpg |
