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- Permanent Link:
- http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI13042422/00001
Notes
- Summary:
- This report examines five of the world’s major subduction fault lines to determine locations where mega-earthquakes, with magnitudes greater than 8, are likely to occur in the future. The document seeks to provide relevant research to insurers and reinsurers, along with governments and other entities operating in these high-risk locations. The work begins with a discussion of the causes of mega-earthquakes and where they generally occur. The largest earthquakes are typically produced in subduction zones at the boundary where one plate slides beneath another. The document outlines the risk of this seismic activity in five regions of the world: the Lesser Antilles of the Caribbean, Chile, Indonesia, Japan, and the North American Pacific Northwest. For each region there is a description of the fault and its movement, the history of earthquakes in the area, the risks facing populations, and the conditions of the insurance industry in that area. In the Caribbean, the North American Plate slips under the Caribbean Plate at about 2cm a year. While parts of the fault experience frequent medium-sized earthquakes, areas that lack a history of major seismic activity imply the occurrence of larger, less frequent quakes. In South America, the Nazca Plate is being subducted beneath Peru and northern Chile at a rate of 6-7cm a year, establishing the potential for mega-earthquakes once every 100-200 years. The Indo-Australian Plate goes beneath the Eurasian Plate 7cm a year, with mega-earthquakes causing significantly destructive tsunamis. The Philippine Plate is subducted under southern Japan at a rate of nearly 4cm a year. Since 1360, intervals between mega-earthquakes have varied between 90 and 150 years. In the Pacific Northwest region of North America there has been no major earthquake since major settlement along the 1000km long Cascadia Subduction Zone. The average recurrence interval is 550 years, but the range of intervals is between 300 and 1200 years. The document finds that the recent earthquake in Haiti has led many insurers in the Caribbean to reassess their levels of reinsurance protection, while the 8.8 magnitude earthquake on February 27, 2010 in Chile has caused reinsurance rates to increase by 75% or more. The 2009 Padang, Indonesia earthquake has led to more catastrophe coverage as purchasers reconsidered their level of exposure. And finally, despite Japan’s history of earthquakes and a highly developed economy, earthquake insurance is not as widespread as expected, but Japan’s excellent building codes and modern building stock mitigate the damaging potential of this fact. ( English )
- Subject:
- Risk Transfer ( English )
- Scope and Content:
- Executive summary p. 4; Caribbean (Lesser antilles) p. 8; Chile p. 12; Indonesia (Sumatra) p. 16; Japan p. 19; North america (Cascadia) p. 23; Sources and further reading p. 26 ( English )
- Citation/Reference:
- (2010). When the earth moves: mega-earthquakes to come? The Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre (ABUHRC).
Record Information
- Source Institution:
- Florida International University
- Rights Management:
- aon Benfield reserves all rights to the content of this document. Members of the aon Benfield analytics team will be pleased to consult on any specific situations and to provide further information regarding the matters discussed herein.
- Resource Identifier:
- FI13042422
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