Nature, socioeconomics and adaptation to natural disasters

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|a FI13010976

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|a Nature, socioeconomics and adaptation to natural disasters |h [electronic resource] |b New evidence from floods |y English.

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|a Washington, DC : |b World Bank, |c 2011-06.

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|a eBook : |b Document : International government publication; |c 1 online resource (49 p.)

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|a Policy research working papers |n 5725 |y English.

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|a This publication is released under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license. For full details of the license, please refer to the following: http://creative-commons.org/licenses/by/3.0/legalcode

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|a Ferreira, S. Hamilton, K., Vincent, J.R. (2011). Nature, socioeconomics and adaptation to natural disasters. The World Bank.

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|a The authors’ objective is to determine the relationship between factors such as income and governance and the frequency of disasters and related fatalities. They challenge the notion that wealth and strong institutions necessarily ensures fewer disasters and deaths. In previous studies focused on earthquake hazard, it has been argued that higher income and better governance are generally associated with greater regulation of development, investment in preventive measures, improved monitoring of risks, and enhanced response capabilities once disaster occurs, but the authors’ focus on floods finds a more nuanced reality. They emphasize flooding because it has been the most prevalent and devastating natural disaster over the past few decades, accounting for nearly 40% of total disasters across the world, over 50% of people affected by disaster, a preponderant portion of economic damages over this time period, and is likely to increase as the effects of climate change become more prominent. The document includes an analysis of the determinants of fatalities in 2,194 large flood events in 108 countries between 1985 and 2008. Flood data was obtained from the Darthmouth Flood Observatory’s (DFO) Global Archive of Large Flood Events. Exposure to flooding was determined by using GIS to overlay flood maps with population maps. GDP per capita was used as an indicator for income, while information from the International Country Risk Guide, which includes information for corruption, bureaucratic quality, law and order, democratic stability, government stability, etc., was used to determine the quality of governance. The authors’ find that while income is negatively associated with the frequency of floods and fatalities in developing countries, in developed countries, increased income is associated with more fatalities because often the larger infrastructural flood-control solutions that economic prosperity affords distort natural flooding patterns, leading to more frequent and more devastating flood conditions. These investments also create a false sense of security, the ‘safe development paradox,’ amongst nearby populations who thus fail to take private action to protect themselves from flood risks. The authors also find that improvements in governance raise the numbers of floods and deaths when governance is already strong. This they argue is the result of the ‘local government paradox.’ Good governance reforms such as decentralization of power often mean that responsibilities for reducing risk to disaster are given to local governments that are more likely to be rewarded for disaster relief rather than investments in disaster prevention.

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|a Disasters and Economics

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|a 1. Introduction p. 2; 2. Models p. 5; 3. Data p. 9; 4. Econometric methods p. 14; 5. Results p. 17; 6. Discussion and conclusions p. 22; References p. 30; Tables: Table 1. Immediate impacts of disaster (1985-2009), by disaster type p. 34; Table 2. Effects of vulnerability indicators on flood mortality p. 35; Table 3. Descriptive statistics p. 36; Table 4. Decomposition of coefficient of variation of key explanatory variables p. 37; Table 5. Results for equation (1), flood frequency p. 38; Table 6. Results for equation (2), flood fatalities p. 39; Table 7. Results for equation (3), number of flood fatalities conditional on flood magnitude p. 40; Table 8. Results for equation (4), flood magnitude p. 41; Figures: Figure 1. Incidence of natural disasters 1985-2009 p. 42; Appendix: Table A1: Governance Indicators p. 43; Table A2: Precipitation regression p. 44; Table A3: Individual governance indicators: results for equation (1), flood frequency, and equation (4), flood magnitude p. 45; Table A4: Individual governance indicators: results for equation (2), flood fatalities, and equation (3), flood fatalities conditional on magnitude p. 46;

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|a Risk management.

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|a Flood control.

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|a Emergency management.

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|a Natural hazards and disasters.

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|a Social indicators |x Governance.

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|a Social indicators |x Income.

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|a Ferreira, Susana |u University of Georgia.

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|a Hamilton, Kirk |u The World Bank.

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|a Vincent, Jeffrey R. |u Duke University.

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|a World Bank. |4 ctb

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|a Disaster Risk Reduction Program, Florida International University (DRR/FIU), |e summary contributor.

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|c Original |w (OCoLC)778847862

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|a dpSobek.

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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI13010976/00001 |y Click here for full text

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