|
|
- Permanent Link:
- http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI13010969/00001
Notes
- Summary:
- This paper integrates information on climate change, hydrodynamic models, and economic development to assess the vulnerability of coastal Bangladesh to sea-level rise and increasingly larger storm surges. Currently, systematic studies of future storm surge, location-specific damage, and adaptation alternatives are scarce in developing countries. It seeks to provide itemized estimates of potential damage and adaptation costs for Bangladesh. A cyclone hits Bangladesh nearly every year during the early summer or late rainy season, with 154 ravaging the coastline from 1877 to 1995. The country also suffers from 40% of the impact of total storm surges in the world. Many scientific studies have suggested that the increase in the regularity and strength of tropical cyclones in recent decades is a product of global climate change, and that continued climate warming will likely cause significant rise in the wind-speed and rainfall quantities associated with such storms, factors that will likely contribute to greater storm surge flooding. The authors believe that understanding the expected changes, associated damages, and costs of adaptation will be vital to making adjustments. Their estimation of the potential damage of storm surge and the cost of adaptation is a 5-step process. It involves demarcating zones vulnerable to flooding and projecting inundation depths, identifying important assets exposed to flood risks, computing potential damages for a 10-year return period storm surge out to 2050, identifying existing adaptation measures that need to be taken to match the context of a changing climate, and finally, calculating the cost of adaptation. The climate change storm surge model for 2050 found a 69% increase in the vulnerable zone with more than 3 meters inundation depth. Estimates also indicate that 8.06 million inhabitants in coastal Bangladesh are vulnerable to storm surge related inundation of more than 1m, and that this number will increase to 68% by 2050 with population growth even if climate change is not a factor. This will increase by 110% by 2050 in a changing climate if adaptation measures are not undertaken. Investments to reduce the negative impacts of climate change related disasters would cost over $2.4 billion, with more than $50 million in yearly recurring costs. Despite these large figures, estimates also show that the costs of incremental adaptation are far less than the potential costs of not adapting and being faced with multiple disasters. ( English )
- Subject:
- Climate Change ( English )
- Scope and Content:
- 1. Introduction; 2. Cyclones in Bangladesh; 3. Methodology and Estimates for Damage and Adaptation Cost; 3.1 Demarcation of vulnerable zone and storm surge height; 3.2 Identification of critical impact elements exposed to inundation risk; 3.3 Potential Damage and loss from a 10 year return period cyclone/ storm surges in a changing climate by 2010; Potential Human Casualty and Injury; Potential damage in housing; Potential damage in education infrastructure; Potential damage in agriculture; Potential damage in non‐ agricultural productive sector; Potential damage in road infrastructure; Potential Damage in power infrastructure; Potential damage in coastal protective infrastructure; 3.4 Mapping existing Coastal Protection in Bangladesh and gap analysis; a) Coastal Polders; b) Foreshore Afforestation; c) Cyclone Shelters; d) Early Warning and evacuation System; 3.5 Costing of Adaptation; Height enhancement of coastal polders; Coastal afforestation measures; Multipurpose Cyclone Shelters; Cyclone resistant private housing; Strengthening the early warning and evacuation system; 4. Conclusion; References; Table 1: Typical storm surge characteristics for cyclones in Bangladesh; Table 2: Vulnerable Area Estimates (sq km); Table 3: Vulnerable Population Estimates (million); Table 4: Parameters used for computation of Agricultural Loss; Table 5: Additional potential damage and loss from an average cyclone induced inundation in a changing climate by 2050; Table 6: Estimated cost of height enhancement of coastal embankments; Table 7: Cost of Adaptation (Investment cost and Recurrent Cost); Figure 1: Cyclone tracks considered for demarcation of vulnerable zone in a changing climate; Figure 2: Projection of Storm Surge Inundation in a Changing Climate‐2050; Figure 3 : Lay out map of coastal polders; Figure 4: Spatial locations of existing cyclone shelters in the coastal area; Box 1: Sidr Damage to the Economy; Appendix 1; Appendix 2: Tracks of major cyclones that crossed the coast of Bangladesh during the period 1960‐2009; Appendix 3: Major cyclones crossing Bangladesh Coast (1960—2009); Appendix 4; Appendix 5 ( English )
- Citation/Reference:
- Dasgupta, S., Huq, M., Khan, Z. H., Ahmed, M. Z., Mukherjee, N., Khan, M. F., & Pandey, K. (2010). Vulnerability of Bangladesh to cyclones in a changing climate: potential damages and adaptation costs. The World Bank.
Record Information
- Source Institution:
- Florida International University
- Rights Management:
- This publication is released under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license. For full details of the license, please refer to the following: http://creative-commons.org/licenses/by/3.0/legalcode
- Resource Identifier:
- FI13010969
778847316 ( oclc )
|
|
