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|a Economics of coastal zone adaptation to climate change |h [electronic resource] |y English. |
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|a Washington, DC : |b World Bank, |c 2010-10. |
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|a Discussion papers |n 10 |y English. |
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|a The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone 978-750-8400; fax 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. |
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|a Nicholls, R., Brown, S., Hanson, S., & Hinkel, J. (2010). Economics of coastal zone adaptation to climate change. The World Bank. |
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|a This report provides an estimation of the costs of coastal adaptation to human-induced climate change from 2010 to 2050, particularly in relation to sea-level rise. It is a background paper for the World Bank Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change study. The document begins with a discussion of the potential impacts of climate change, its contribution to the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, and where effects of these emerging trends are most likely to be felt. The authors contend that as populations and economic activities become concentrated in coastal zones, their exposure to sea level rise and intensifying tropical cyclones increases dramatically. The authors utilize the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) model to estimate the economic impacts for given climate and socioeconomic scenarios, and adaptation options. The climatic scenarios use temperature change and sea level rise as variables, while the socioeconomic scenarios utilize variables related to land-use, coastal population growth, and GDP growth. The three adaptation options assessed are (1) sea and river dike construction and maintenance costs, (2) beach nourishment, and (3) port upgrade. In the baseline, climate is constant while population and GDP growth are accounted for. Climate change impacts and costs of adaptation are then examined relative to this evolving baseline. Four scenarios of global sea-level rise are considered: a no-rise scenario, along with low, middle, and high sea-level rise scenarios. If protection is established following the DIVA model, the actual damage of sea-level rise will be much lower than the potential damages of sea-level rise if protection is ignored. Assuming sea-level rise, the research concludes that global adaptation costs are in the range $26-89 billion a year by the 2040s, depending on the magnitude of sea-level rise. Most of these investments would be for sea dike construction, whose maintenance costs would go up with time. Beach nourishment costs are also significant and would also increase with time. The cost of other adaptations is almost negligible at a global level. Successful adaptation strategies will require countries to enhance their institutional capacity for integrated coastal management. This is especially the case for poorer countries, with small islands, populated deltaic areas, and Africa’s coasts presenting some of the greatest challenges. Global studies such as this one need to be augmented with national case studies to better understand how adaptation might operate on the ground. |
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|a Climate Change |
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|a Acknowledgments p. vii; Executive Summary p. ix; 1. Context p. 1; 1.1 What are the potential impacts of climate change, including extreme weather events, on the sector? p. 1; 1.2 Who (across and within countries) is likely to be most affected? p. 4; 1.2.1 Geographically p. 4; 1.2.2 By income or vulnerability class p. 4; 1.3 What experience is there with adaptation in the sector? p. 4; 1.3.1 Autonomous adaptation p. 5; 1.3.2 Public sector investment p. 5; 1.3.3 “Soft” adaptation—policies and regulations p. 7; 1.3.4 Reactive (and proactive) adaptation p. 7; 1.4 What is the nature and extent of adaptation/development deficit in this sector? p. 7; 1.5 How will emerging changes in development and demographics influence adaptation? p. 8; 2. Literature Review p. 9; 2.1 Previous studies relevant to the sector p. 9; 2.1.1 Nature and extent of damages p. 9; 2.1.2 Nature of adaptation and its cost, private and public p. 9; 2.1.3 Strategic conclusion (timing, sequencing, policy, etc.). p. 10; 2.2 How this study complements existing work p. 11; 3. Methodology p. 12; 3.1 How we represent the future—2010 to 2050 p. 12; 3.1.1 The baseline p. 12; 3.1.2 Climate change scenarios p. 13; 3.2 How climate change impacts are calculated p. 15; 3.3 How costs of adaptation are defined and calculated p. 16; 3.3.1 Land Use Planning p. 17; 3.3.2 Dike Maintenance and Operation p. 17; 3.3.3 Port Upgrade p. 18; 3.4 Data (Sources, Assumptions, and Simplifications) p. 18; 4. Results p. 20; 4.1 Investment costs (upfront and maintenance) in the baseline scenario p. 20; 4.2 Investment costs (upfront and maintenance) due to climate change p. 21; 4.2.1 High, medium, and low scenarios: Global adaptation costs p. 21; 4.2.2 Medium scenario: Adaptation costs in World Bank Regions p. 21; 4.2.3 Effect of cyclone activity and of no population growth in the coastal zone on adaptation costs p. 23; 4.2.4 Adaptation costs: Synthesis p. 23; 5. Limitations p. 25; 5.1 Treatment of adaptation/development deficit p. 25; 5.2 Treatment of extreme events p. 25; 5.3 Treatment of technological change p. 26; 5.4 Treatment of inter-temporal choice p. 26; 5.5 Treatment of “soft” adaptation measures p. 26; 5.6 Treatment of cross-sector measures p. 26; 5.7 Areas for follow-up work and research advances p. 27; Appendix 1. EACC Population and GDP Projections p. 28; A1.1 Population Projections p. 28; A1.2 GDP Projections p. 28; Appendix 2. Adaptation Improvements p. 31; A2.1 Dike Maintenance and Operation p. 31; A2.2 Port Upgrade p. 32; A2.2.1 Methodology p. 33; A2.2.2 Source data p. 33; A2.2.3 Port selection criteria p. 33; A2.2.4 Traffic to area calculations p. 33; A2.2.5 Tonnage and containers p. 34; A2.2.6 Oil and petroleum products p. 34; A2.2.7 Amalgamating data p. 34; A2.2.8 Costs of upgrade p. 34; A2.2.9 Results/Discussion p. 35; Appendix 3. Results by World Bank Region (excluding high-income countries) p. 36; References p. 43; Tables: 1 Main Climate Drivers for Coastal Systems, Trends due to Climate Change, and Main Physical and Ecosystem Effects (adapted from Nicholls and others 2007a) p. 2; 2 Main Effects of Relative Sea-Level Rise p. 3; 3 Summary of Climate-Related Impacts on Socioeconomic Sectors in Coastal Zones p. 3; 4 Climate-Induced Global Mean SLR Scenarios Used in EACC study p. 14; 5 Sea-Level Rise and Impact/Adaptation Assessment Decisions p. 14; 6 Coastal Scenario Combinations Used in EACC Study p. 15; 7 Sea-Level Rise Effects, Impacts, and Adaptation Options Considered p. 17; 8 Incremental Average Annual Costs (2010s–2040s) of Adaptation for Coastal Protection and
Residual Damages by Scenario under the No-Rise SLR Scenario p. 20; 9 Incremental Average Annual Costs (2010s–2040s) of Adaptation for Coastal Protection and Residual Damages by Scenario p. 22; A1.1. Aggregate GDP Projections from Economics Models p. 29; A1.2. Aggregate GDP Projections from SRES Scenarios p. 30; A2.1. Estimated Regional Costs of Port Upgrade Costs Based on Elevating Port Area for High, Medium, and Low Sea-Level Scenarios to 2050 p. 35; A3.1. Incremental Annual Costs of Adaptation for Coastal Protection and Residual Damages by Region and Decade for the No-Rise SLR Scenario p. 37; A3.2. Incremental Costs of Adaptation for Coastal Protection and Residual Damages by Region and Decade for the Low SLR Scenario p. 38; A3.3. Incremental Annual Costs of Adaptation for Coastal Protection and Residual Damages by Region and Decade for the Medium SLR Scenario p. 39; A3.4. Incremental Annual Costs of Adaptation for Coastal Protection and Residual Damages by Region and Decade for the High SLR Scenario p. 40; A3.5. Incremental Annual Costs of Adaptation for Coastal Protection and Residual Damages by Region and Decade for the High SLR Scenario with Cyclones p. 41; A3.6. Incremental Annual Costs of Adaptation for Coastal Protection and Residual Damages by Region and Decade for the High SLR Scenario with No Population Growth p. 42; Figures: 1 Potential Responses to Coastal Hazards p. 5; 2 Schematic of Module Linkages in the DIVA Model p.12; 3 Global Incremental Adaptation Costs for the High, Medium, and Low SLR Scenarios p. 21; 4 Beach Nourishment Costs in the World Bank Regions for the Medium SLR Scenario p. 23; 5 Percentage of Adaptation Costs from Sea Dikes, River Dikes, Maintenance Costs, and Beach Nourishment for Six World Bank Regions p. 23; A2-1 World Tonnage for Goods Loaded and Unloaded, 1970–2007 p. 32 |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2013. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a Climate change. |
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|a Coasts. |
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|a Sea level. |
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|a Economic impact analysis. |
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|a Nicholls, Robert |u School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton. |
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|a Brown, Sally |u School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton. |
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|a Hanson, Susan |u School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton. |
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|a Hinkel, Jochen |u Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Research Domain Transdisciplinary Concepts and Methods, Pappelallee. |
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|a Disaster Risk Reduction Program, Florida International University (DRR/FIU), |e summary contributor. |
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0 |
|a dpSobek. |
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|a dpSobek |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI13010968/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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