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- Permanent Link:
- http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI13010966/00001
Notes
- Summary:
- This synthesis report seeks to enhance public understanding of climate-related risks facing coastal megacities in developing countries utilizing specific cases from East Asia. It addresses the lack of systematic assessment of climate risk at the city level, highlighting to national and municipal policy-makers the scale of vulnerabilities, corresponding costs related to disaster if mitigation is not pursued, and available adaptation opportunities. The report features three cities: Manila, Ho Chi Minh City, and Bangkok. They are all low-lying coastal urban centers in developing countries with populations ranging from 8 to 15 million, nodes of economic growth for their countries, and thus highly vulnerable to climate-related risks. The first section outlines the process of assessing climate risk for the year 2050, which involves estimating vulnerability through hydrometeorological modeling, scenario analysis, and GIS mapping, and lastly, identifying options for adaptation. It incorporates estimations of temperature and precipitation changes along with sea level rise and storm surge using historical data. The level of risk and vulnerability and estimation of costs due to damage are derived using models that take into account climate variables, socioeconomic and development factors, and local topographical and hydrological information. These analyses were carried over the course of 1-½ years by bank teams working with city-level stakeholders. Analysis found that all three cities are likely to face significant rises in temperatures, increases in precipitation and corresponding multiplication of the depth and duration of floods. Greater numbers of people will be exposed to flooding in 2050. The costs associated with damages caused by flooding will likely increase anywhere between 2 and 6 percent of the regions GDP as buildings, transportation networks, and waste management facilities sustain debilitating damages. Broader environmental implications of more intense flooding are also taken into account. The report provides a few solutions to address these risks. It calls for the better management of urban environments and infrastructures by focusing on the interaction between development and the environment. It also emphasizes the incorporation of climate-related risks into city planning, particularly as they affect socioeconomic and development goals. Cities need to be proactive in developing strategic adaptation frameworks, implementing regulatory reforms, and invest in risk management. ( English )
- Subject:
- Climate Change Adaptation ( English )
- Scope and Content:
- Acknowledgments p. vii; Abbreviations and Acronyms p. ix; Executive Summary p. xi; 1. Introduction p.1; Background and Rationale p. 1; Objective p. 2; Process of Preparation p. 3; Overview of Methodology/Approach and Climate Parameters Selected p. 3; Structure of the Report p. 4; 2. Methodologies for Downscaling, Hydrological Mapping, and Assessing Damage Costs p. 5; Selection of Emissions Scenarios, Downscaling, and Uncertainties p. 5; Hydrological Modeling for Developing Scenarios of Flood Risk p. 9; Approach to Assessing Damage Costs p. 12; Assessment of Damage Costs in the HCMC Study p. 17; Assumptions about the Future of Cities in Estimating Damage Costs p. 19; Conclusion: Methodological Limitations and Uncertainties in Interpreting Results of the Study p. 20; 3. Estimating Flood Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Coastal Cities p. 23; Estimating Future Climate-related Impacts in Bangkok p. 23; Main Findings from Hydrological Analysis and GIS Mapping for Bangkok p. 28; Estimating Climate-related Impacts in Manila p. 31; Findings from the Hydrological Analysis and GIS Mapping for Metro Manila p. 35; Estimating Climate-related Impacts in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam p. 38;
Main Findings from Hydrological Analysis and GIS Mapping for HCMC p. 44; Conclusion p. 50; 4. Assessing Damage Costs and Prioritizing Adaptation Options p. 51; Bangkok: Analysis of Damage Costs Related to Flooding in 2008 and 2050 p. 51; Prioritization of Adaptation Options in Bangkok p. 56; Analysis of Damage Costs Related to Flooding in Metro Manila p. 60; Prioritization of Adaptation Options in Manila p. 65; Analysis of Damage Costs in HCMC p. 69; Analysis of Adaptation in HCMC p. 72; Conclusion p. 73; 5. Conclusions and Policy Implications p. 75; Key Findings and Lessons for Policy Makers p. 75; Lessons on Methodology for Follow-up Studies p. 78; Bibliography p. 81; Annexes: A. Vulnerability of Kolkata Metropolitan Area to increased Precipitation in a Changing Climate p. 85; B. Scenarios Applied in the Hydrodynamic Modeling in the HCMC study p. 91; C. Adaptation to Increased Flooding: Brief Overview p. 93; D. Comparison of Costs across Cities p. 97; Figures: Figure 1.1 Asian Megacity Hotspots p. 2;
Figure 2.1 Hydrometeorological Model Schematic for Chao Phraya Watershed p. 11; Figure 2.2 Manila Rainfall-Runoff Calibration Hydrographs p. 12; Figure 2.3 Estimation of Damage to Buildings, Assets, and Inventories in the Bangkok and Manila Cases p. 14; Figure 2.3 Estimating Impacts—A Flow Chart p. 13; Figure 2.5 Possible Relationships between Flood Duration and Land Value Loss p. 18; Figure 3.1 Location of Bangkok in the Chao Praya River Basin p. 23;
Figure 3.2 Land Elevations, 2002 versus 2050 Land Subsidence p. 28; Figure 3.3 Maximum Water Depth for 1-in-30-year event, 2008 and 2050, A1FI p. 29; Figure 3.4 Bangkok Flood Hazard Relationship p. 29; Figure 3.5a Affected Condensed (Poor) Community of Case C2008-T30 p. 31; Figure 3.5b Affected Condensed (Poor) Community of Case C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30 p. 31; Figure 3.6 Metro Manila and its Watershed p. 32; Figure 3.7 Different Climatic Regimes in the Philippines p. 33; Figure 3.8 Major Watershed and Drainage Areas of Manila p. 34; Figure 3.9 Comparison of Population Affected by Flooding under Different Scenarios p. 36;
Figure 3.10 Areas of High Population Density and with High Risk of Inundation under A1FI Scenario p. 37; Figure 3.11 Areas at High Risk from Flooding under Different Scenarios p. 37;
Figure 3.12 HCMC: Frequently Flooded Areas under Current Conditions p. 40; Figure 3.13a HCMCCity Case Study: Comparison of 1-in-30-year Flood for 2008 p. 45; Figure 3.13b HCMCCity Case Study: Comparison of 1-in-30-year Flood for 2050 A2 Scenario p. 45; Figure 3.14a HCMC Poverty Rates by District p. 48; Figure 3.14b Districts Vulnerable to Flooding p. 48; Figure 3.15 Impact on Waste Management p. 49; Figure 3.16 HCMC 2050 A2 1-in-30-year Flood Inundation Overlaid on Projected Land Use Patterns p. 49; Figure 3.17 HCMC Droughts and Salinity Intrusion in 2050 p. 50; Figure 4.1 Damage Cost Associated with a 1-in-30-year Flood (C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30) p. 52; Figure 4.2 Loss Exceedance Curves, Bangkok p. 52; Figure 4.3 Maximum Inundation Area Without and With the Proposed Adaptation p. 58; Figure 4.4 Flood Costs under Three Return Periods and Two Climate Scenarios (PHP) p. 60; Figure 4.5 Loss Exceedance Curves for Manila (PHP) p. 63; Figure 4.6 Damage Costs Associated with Different Scenarios (PHP) p. 63; Figure 4.7 Damages to Buildings from a 1-in-30-year Flood (2008 PHP) p. 63; Figure 4.8 Flood Costs as a Percent of 2008 GDP p. 65; Figure 4.9 Annual Benefits from Adaptation Investments in Metro Manila p. 68; Boxes: Box 2.1 Strengths and Limitations of Different Downscaling Techniques Selected for this Study p. 7; Box 2.2 Downscaling from 16 GCMs p. 8; Box 2.3 Some Basic Principles for Hydrological Mapping p. 11; Box 3.1 The Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR): Some Assumptions about the Future p. 26; Box 3.2 What does Metro Manila Look Like in the Future? p. 35; Box 3.3 HCMC in 2050 p. 41; Box 3.4 Overview of Downscaling and Hydrological Analysis Carried out for HCMC Study p. 42; Box 4.1 Examining Building Damages, Income Losses, and Health Costs in Bangkok p. 55; Box 4.2 Expected Annual Benefits from Adaptation in Bangkok p. 58; Box 4.3 Increased Time Costs and Health Risk from Flooding in Manila p. 65; Box 4.4 Rough Estimate of Viability of Proposed Flood Control Measures p. 72; Tables: Table 2.1 Climate Change Forecasts for 2050 p. 8; Table 2.2 Summary of City Case Study Hydrologic Modeling p. 11; Table 2.3 Direct and Indirect Costs from Flooding p. 13;
Table 2.4 Flood Damage Rate by Type of Building in Manila p. 15; Table 3.1 Poverty Line and the Poor in the BMR1 p. 24; Table 3.2 Bangkok Monthly Average Temperature and precipitation p. 25; Table 3.3 Climate Change and Land Subsidence Parameter Summary for Bangkok p. 27;
Table 3.4 Bangkok Inundated Area under Current Conditions and Future Scenarios p. 28;
Table 3.5 Exposure of Bangkok Population to looding p. 30; Table 3.6 Manila: Monthly Average Temperature and Precipitation p. 33; Table 3.7 Manila Climate Change Parameters p. 35;
Table 3.8 Manila: Comparison of Inundated Area (km2) with 1-in-100-year flood for 2008 and 2050 Climate Change Scenarios with only Existing Infrastructure and with Completion of 1990 Master Plan p. 36; Table 3.9 Affected Length of Road by Inundation Depth p. 38; Table 3.10 HCMC District Poverty Rates. 2003 p. 39; Table 3.11 Ho Chi Minh City: Monthly Average Temperature and Precipitation p. 40; Table 3.12 Climate Change Parameter Summary for HCMC p . 44; Table 3.13 Summary of Flooding at Present and in 2050 with Climate Change p. 44;
Table 3.14 District Population Affected by an Extreme Event in 2050 p. 46; Table 3.15 Districts Affected by Flooding in Base Year and in 2050 p. 47; Table 3.16 Effects of Flooding on Future Land Use under 2050 A2 Extreme Event p. 49; Table 4.1 Summary of Damages Assessed in the Bangkok Study p. 51; Table 4.2 Summary of Flood and Storm Damages, Bangkok (million 2008 THB) p. 53; Table 4.3 Changes in Income Losses to Wage Earners, Commerce, and Industry p. 55; Table 4.4 Damage Costs in Bangkok and Regional GRDP p. 56; Table 4.5 Investment Costs for Adaptation Projects in Bangkok (million THB) p. 57; Table 4.6 Flood Damage Costs With and Without a 30-year Return Period Flood Protection Project (million THB) p. 59; Table 4.7 Net Present Value of Adaptation Measures to Provide Protection Against a 1-in-30 and 1-in-10-year Flood (million THB) p. 59; Table 4.8 Flood Damage Costs in Manila (2008 PHP) p. 61; Table 4.9 Income and Revenue Losses to Individuals and Firms Associated with Floods (2008 PHP) p. 64;
Table 4.10 Damage Costs from 1-in-10, 1-in-30, and 1-in-100-year Floods in Different Scenarios
(2008 PHP) p. 65; Table 4.11 Adaptation Investments Considered for Different Return Periods and Climate Scenarios p. 67; Table 4.12 Investment Costs and Net Present Value of Benefits Associated with Different Flood Control Projects in Manila (PHP) using a 15 percent discount rate p. 67; Table 4.13 Expected Cost of Flooding based on Quadratic Relationship between Duration of Flooding and Land Values in HCMC p. 70; Table 4.14 Present Value of the Cost of Floods up to 2050 using the GDP Estimation Method p. 71; Table 4.15 Summary of Present Value of Climate Change Costs in HCMC (USD) p. 72; Table 4.16 Proposed Implementation Arrangements for HCMC p. 74 ( English )
- Citation/Reference:
- (2010). Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: a synthesis report. The World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
- General Note:
- Title from PDF cover (viewed November 19, 2010)
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- Florida International University
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681904489 ( oclc )
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