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|a Degrees of risk |h [electronic resource] |b defining a risk management framework for climate security |y English. |
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|a Washington, D.C. : |b Third Generation Environmentalism (E3G), |c 2011-02. |
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|a Document, Internet Resource, Computer File |
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|a February 2011. Title from full report pdf file main screen (viewed on April 1, 2011).
Full report URL: http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/Degrees-of-Risk%5FDefining%20a%20Risk%20Management-Framework-for-Climate-Security%5FFull-Report.pdf. |
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|a This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.0 license. Refer to main document for use rights. |
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|a Mabey, N., Gulledge, J., Finel, B., Silverthorne, K. (2011). Degrees of risk: defining a risk management framework for climate security. Third Generation Environmentalism Ltd. |
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|a This document presents a three-tier climate change risk management framework that includes mitigation to limit global warming, adaptation to likely climate shifts, and contingency planning for worst-case scenarios. It discusses decision-making regarding climate threats in a context of uncertainty, using lessons learned from the management of other security threats. Despite international consensus that climate change is cause for significant alarm, efforts adequate to meet the level of threat have yet to be established. The authors argue that comprehensive risk management approaches must take into account uncertainties about the long-run progression of climate change rather than allow uncertainty to legitimize inaction. In the second chapter, the authors present what is presently known about the climate change threat, acknowledging significant knowledge gaps in terms of non-linear changes, tipping points, and regional impact variation. The third chapter looks at perceptual biases, such as the tendency to undervalue outlier scenarios by presupposing that climate change will be a slow gradual process. In the fourth section, the authors discuss the current global management of climate risks and inadequacies evident in attempts to match stated objectives of limiting global temperature rise within non-catastrophic ranges with the necessary binding emissions reduction targets. This highlights the larger problem of establishing international regimes for the collective adaptation to climate threats. The fifth and sixth chapters outline the three-part “ABC” risk management framework, which advocates that the international community aim to keep global warming below 2º C (3.6º F), build and budget assuming 3 - 4º C (5.4 - 7.2º F), and establishes contingency plans that assume 5 - 7º C (9 - 12.6º F) of warming. The final chapter is a presentation of recommendations. The authors call for aggressive mitigation of global greenhouse gas production through major investment in research, development, and diffusion of green technologies across the world as a strategy to avoid worst-case scenarios. They also advocate for the establishment of a strong international regime for monitoring country efforts to deliver on agreed upon reduction targets. While efforts are being undertaken to avoid the most catastrophic possibilities, the authors believe countries should establish adaptation strategies for impacts that are likely unavoidable considering global warming currently taking place. These include investments in building resilience of vulnerability communities, and improving cooperation in disaster risk reduction and humanitarian response. |
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|a Disaster Risk Management |
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|a Climate Change |
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|a Acknowledgements p. 7; Executive Summary p. 8; Chapter 1: A Clear and Present Danger: How Climate Change Impacts Security p. 17; Summary p. 17; Understanding Climate Security p. 18; National and International Responses p. 20; Facing the Climate Security Threat p. 23; Chapter 2: Knowns and Unknowns: Understanding the Climate Change Threat p. 25; Summary p. 25; The Scientific Basis for Risk Management p. 26; Scientific Uncertainty p. 30; Rate of Change and Timing of Impacts p. 34; Abrupt Change, Thresholds and Nonlinearity p. 38; Monitoring Climate Change p. 43; Regional Projections and Regional Sensitivity to Change p. 44; Chapter 3: The Role of Risk Perception in Risk Management p. 50; Summary p. 50; From analysis To Decisions p. 51; Barriers to Perception p. 52; Understanding Expert Bias p. 61; Learning and Risk Perception p. 65; Chapter 4: Evaluating the Current Response: No Effective Management Plan in Place p. 69; Summary p. 69; Elements of a Strategy to Limit Warming p. 70; Toward an Adaptation Strategy p. 72; Limitations of the International Climate Regime p. 75; Chapter 5: Responding to the Threat: Learning from Security Sector Risk Management p. 78; Summary p. 78; Understanding Security Risk Management p. 79; The Ubiquity of Strategic Uncertainty p. 81; Risk Management: A Framework for Embracing Uncertainty p. 83; Key Principles in Implementing Risk Management Frameworks p. 92; Chapter 6: Exploring Options: Tailoring the Risk Management Approach to Climate Change p. 98; Summary p. 98; Risk Management Analysis of Climate Change p. 99; Critical Elements driving the Risk Management of Climate Change p. 100; Chapter 7: Operationalizing Risk Management: Ten Key Recommendations p. 121; Managing Climate Security Risks p. 121; A Three-tier "ABC" Framework p. 124; Ten Priorities for Operationalizing a Risk Management Response p. 125; Conclusion p. 142; Annex 1: Climate Science: Observed Climate Change and Attribution to Human Activities p. 143; Observed Climate Change p. 143; Projected Climate Change p. 148; Annex 2: Overview of Risk Management Analysis Methodology p. 154; Bibliography p. 160; Boxes: 1 Broad range of security impacts identified in recent analyses. p. 19; 2 Climate change and United States security doctrine. p. 21; 3 (In?)Stability of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation. p. 40; 4 Case study: Expert bias on climate sensitivity. p. 64; 5 IPCC “reasons for concern”. p. 66; 6 Managing the risk of bioterrorism. p. 81; 7 The defeat of France in 1940. p. 86; 8 The development of US nuclear force structure. p. 88; Figures: 2.1 Satellite-observed changes in upper and lower atmospheric temperatures from 1979 to 2010. p. 28; 2.2 Attribution of land, ocean, and global warming to human activities. p. 29; 2.3 Probability distributions for equilibrium climate sensitivity. p. 33; 2.4 The long tail of scientific uncertainty for future climate impacts. p. 35; 2.5 Observed sea level rise compared to model projections. p. 36; 2.6 Observed Arctic sea ice loss compared to model projections. p. 37; 2.7 Map of large-scale tipping elements in the global climate system. p. 43; 2.8 Distributions of human population density, rain-fed agriculture, and regional sensitivity to climate change. p. 48; 3.1 Abrupt climate change as revealed in a Greenland ice core. p. 55; 3.2 Global increase in drought severity during the 20th century. p. 56; 3.3 Recent update to the IPCC’s “reasons for concern.” p. 57; 3.4 Climatemodel projections giving a false impression of smooth climate change. p. 67; 4.1 2°C Compatible Emissions Pathways for Developed and Developing Countries to 2050. p. 72; 4.2 Effects of national emissions pledges in the Copenhagen Accord. p. 76; 5.1 Continuous Risk Management Cycle. p. 96; 6.1 Conflict Impact and Precipitation Levels in Ugandan Karamoja 2004. p. 110; 6.2 Percentage of Failed Growing Seasons in Africa 2000 and 2050. p. 112; 6.3 Uncertainties in Flow Projections on the Nile in Eastern Sudan and Ethiopian highlands. p. 115; 6.4 Increase in probability of extreme events in a warmer climate. p. 116; 6.5 Mitigation of GHG emissions lops off the long tail. p. 118; 7.1 Climate Security Scenarios in 2100 based on a 2°C global mitigation target. p. 123; A1 Observed change in average global surface temperature from 1850 to 2005. p. 145; A2 Global mean sea level rise from 1870 to 2001. p. 146; A3 Globally synchronous retreat of mountain glaciers from 1960 to 2003. p. 146; A4 Change in winter maximum and summer minimum Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2009. p. 147; A5 Increased frequency of heavy precipitation in the contiguous United States from 1958 to 2007. p. 148; A6 Model-projected changes in surface water runoff/streamflow in 2050. p. 150; A7 Projections of 21st-century sea level rise. p. 153; Tables: 2.1 Examples of projected regional impacts. p. 44; 5.1 Summary of generic risk management responses to uncertainty. p. 92; 6.1 Examples of potential key vulnerabilities from the IPCC AR4. Warming levels are relative to 1990. p. 106; 7.1 Ten recommendations for operationalizing a risk management approach. p. 126 |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2013. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a Climate change. |
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|a Risk management. |
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|a Global warming. |
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|a Mabey, Nick |g Founding Director and Chief Executive |u E3G. |4 cre |
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|a Gulledge, Jay |g Senior Scientist and Director for Science and Impacts |u Pew Center on Global Climate Change. |4 cre |
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|a Finel, Bernard |g Senior Fellow |u American Security Project. |4 cre |
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|a Silverthorne, Katherine |g Program Lead on U.S. Climate Change and heads the Climate Security Program |u E3G. |4 cre |
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|a Disaster Risk Reduction Program, Florida International University (DRR/FIU), |e summary contributor. |
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|c Original |w (OCoLC)710838078 |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI13010921/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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