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- Permanent Link:
- http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI13010910/00001
Notes
- Summary:
- This document is a guide to understanding the role that uncertainty plays in climate change adaptation, managing uncertainty, and communicating them in policy-making recommendations. It is for the Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA) program. Uncertainty is defined as the collective effect of errors, approximations, assumptions, and ignorance on the validity of research results. The document outlines three kinds of uncertainty that can be derived from this definition. The first is statistical uncertainty, a byproduct of poor data sources, improper experimental design, or human error. This form of uncertainty is particularly prevalent in the developing world. In Africa, climate change adaptation research is generally stymied by unreliable census data, the lack of adequate meteorological data, and the absence of high-resolution digital maps. A second form of uncertainty, process uncertainty, results from the inability to clearly determine what the relevant variables are, how they interact with one another, and their level of significance. This is the case when determining what the impacts of climate change will be on food security, human health, and geography, or the costs and benefits of adaptation. The third and final form of uncertainty discussed is ignorance, a result of the limitations of human knowledge. It is simply impossible for any model to outline all possible interactions. While the ideal is to reduce all uncertainties, the reality is that uncertainty is inevitable. Instead, the document calls for reducing uncertainty to the degree possible, and clarifying uncertainties where this is not. Clarifying these uncertainties is often difficult in the multi-disciplinary research that climate change adaptation requires because of the coming together of different methodologies, and the varied means of dealing with uncertainty. The author provides a number of recommendations for managing uncertainty in climate change adaptation research. The document calls for the meticulous documentation of methods and approaches used, thus providing a means for quality control. In dealing with uncertainty in the policy-making and implementing arena, the document addresses differences in how researchers frame issues as compared to decision-makers. While the former focus on what can be known, the other places emphasis on what can be done. It puts forward adaptive management as a means to bridge this gap. This is an incremental ‘learning by doing’ approach to adaptation that leads to action while ongoing research is utilized to reduce uncertainties. It involves cycles of problem identification, research, analysis, implementation and evaluation. ( ,English,English )
- Subject:
- Climate Change Adaptation
- Scope and Content:
- Introduction p. 1; The problems of uncertainty in adaptation research p. 3; The challenges of multidisciplinary research p. 5; The use of scientific information in decision-making processes p. 6; Expanding research in adaptation decision-making p. 7; Conclusions p. 9; References p. 10
- Citation/Reference:
- Jobbins, G. (2011). Managing uncertainty in adaptation. International Development Research Centre (IDRC), UK Department for International Development (DFID).
Record Information
- Source Institution:
- Florida International University
- Rights Management:
- This publication may be downloaded, saved, printed and reproduced for educational and research purposes. When used, we request inclusion of a note recognizing the authorship and the permission granted for use by the International Development Research Centre. Please send inquiries and comments to ccaa@idrc.ca
- Resource Identifier:
- FI13010910
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