Description
Extreme sea levels are likely to increase in the future with an expected accelerated
rise in mean sea level and through possible changes in storminess. Society is becoming more
vulnerable to extreme sea levels due to considerable growth in human populations and
economy at the coastal zone and this is particularly true for Western Australia, the fastest
growing Australian state or region. This paper describes a novel approach used to estimate
future changes in extreme sea level around the southwest coastline of Western Australia.
Probabilities of extreme sea level for the present climate have been estimated using a 60 year
hindcast of sea levels. The impact of climate change has been explored by adding a range of
mean sea level rise projections to these probabilities. Estimates of possible future changes in
recurrence intervals every decade over the 21st century are presented, showing that climate
change has the potential to significantly reduce current average recurrence intervals and that
the amount of reduction varies significantly around the coastline.