Until fairly recent times no one thought climate
changed, let alone was influenced by human activities.
By the 19th century, scientists were theorizing that
temperatures were affected by what we now call
greenhouse gasses. And in the late 19th century, the
Swedish scientist Arrhenius suggested that human
industry might cause the planet to warm. But this
notion was generally scoffed at. Over the course of the
20th century, the scientific community gradually came
to terms with this theory and began to regard climate
change—even rapid climate change—as more than a
distant possibility.
Interest in climate change as a national security
issue developed even later. Although the Central
Intelligence Agency (CIA) did commission a study to
look into the security implications of climate change in
the late 1970s, the issue had little resonance until the
late 1990s when the Senate Armed Services Committee
declared that environmental destruction, including
global warming, was “a growing national security
threat.” The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) was created in 1995 in part to allay
fears. And then, in 2003, the rather notorious report
commissioned by the Pentagon, “An Abrupt Climate
Change Scenario and its Implications for United States
National Security,” provided a worst-case scenario,
which suggested that climate change might have a
catastrophic impact, leading to rioting and nuclear
war.1