The durability of concrete is determined largely by its deterioration over
time which is affected by the environment. Climate change may alter this environment,
causing an acceleration of deterioration processes that will affect the safety
and serviceability of concrete infrastructure in Australia, U.S., Europe, China and
elsewhere. This investigation of concrete deterioration under changing climate in
Australia uses Monte-Carlo simulation of results from General Circulation Models
(GCMs) and considers high greenhouse gas emission scenarios representing the
A1FI schemes of the IPCC. We present the implications of climate change for the
durability of concrete structures, in terms of changes in probability of reinforcement
corrosion initiation and corrosion induced damage at a given calendar year
between 2000 and 2100 across Australia. Since the main driver to increased concrete
deterioration is CO2 concentration and temperature, then increases in damage risks
observed in Australia are likely to be observed in other concrete infrastructure
internationally. The impact of climate change on the deterioration cannot be ignored,
but can be addressed by new approaches in design. Existing concrete structures, for
which design has not considered the effects of changing climatemay deterioratemore
rapidly than originally planned.