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- Permanent Link:
- http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15061873/00001
Notes
- Abstract:
- We have only to look at one event in just one city, hurricane Katrina and its impact on New Orleans, to understand what
may soon be upon us... There have been recent and very clear warnings from the US scientific community that we are perilously close
to a climate change tipping point, and that unless we begin reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, we will
soon pass this point with widespread undesirable consequences. Scientists estimate that continued growth of
GHG emissions for another 10 years would make it impractical, and most likely impossible, to avert dangerous climate change.
With a business-as-usual approach, where fossil fuel consumption and GHG emissions continue to increase, we will likely see a warming of 2 °C to 3 °C this century with a planetary energy imbalance sufficient to melt enough
ice to raise sea level by several meters. During the last interglacial period, 125,000 years ago, when the earth was this warm, sea level was four to six meters higher than today.
Because 53 percent of all Americans live in and around coastal cities and towns, it is important to understand
the point at which sea level rise creates an untenable situation in the US. We have seen and heard much about
the catastrophic global consequences of six meters of sea level rise, and the effects of a much smaller rise on
low-lying countries, like Bangladesh and island states in the South Pacific. What has not been made clear is the
possible timing and effect of smaller increments of sea level rise on the US.
The following study of the US coasts reveals that, beginning with just one meter of sea level rise, our nation will
be physically under siege, vulnerable to catastrophic property and infrastructure loss with large population
disruptions and economic hardship. We have only to look at one event in just one city, hurricane Katrina and its impact on both New Orleans and our country, to understand what may soon be upon us if firm and immediate
action to reduce GHG emissions to acceptable levels is not taken.
The most recent scientific study, issued by 47 scientists from many of our most respected institutions (from NASA
on the East Coast to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory on the West Coast), indicates that, at approximately
450 parts per million (ppm) carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere (a greenhouse gas), we will reach a tipping
point and trigger “dangerous climate change” with potentially irreversible glacial melt and rapid sea level rise “out of humanity’s control”. We are currently dangerously close to this threshold at 383 ppm, and are now increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at about 2 ppm annually. The one inexpensive fossil fuel in plentiful supply that, if consumed at its present and/or an expanding rate, will push the planet past the 450 ppm threshold, is coal. If we are to avert this tipping point, we will need to call for an immediate halt to the construction of any new conventional coal-fired power plants and the phasing out of existing and aging coal plants over time. If we fail to take this action, there is no doubt we will soon reach the 450 ppm threshold. ( English )
Record Information
- Source Institution:
- Florida International University
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