Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection
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Material Information

Title:
Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection
Series Title:
Nature Geoscience Volume 3
Creator:
Nathaniel C. Johnson
Shang-Ping Xie
Affiliation:
University of Hawaii -- Manoa -- School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology -- International Pacific Research Center
University of Hawaii -- Manoa -- School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology -- Department of Meteorology -- International Pacific Research Center
Publisher:
Macmillan Publishers Limited
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Notes

Abstract:
Deep convection over tropical oceans is observed generally above a threshold for sea surface temperatures1–4, which falls in the vicinity of 26–28 [degrees]C. High-resolution models suggest that the related sea surface temperature threshold for tropical cyclones rises in a warming climate5,6. Some observations for the past few decades, however, show that tropical tropospheric warming has been nearly uniform vertically7,8, suggesting that the troposphere may have become less stable and casting doubts on the possibility that the sea surface temperature threshold increases substantially with global warming. Here we turn to satellite observations of rainfall for the past 30 years. We detect significant covariability between tropical mean sea surface temperatures and the convective threshold on interannual and longer timescales. In addition, we find a parallel upward trend of approximately 0:1 [degrees]C.=decade over the past 30 years in both the convective threshold and tropical mean sea surface temperatures. We conclude that, in contrast with some observational indications, the tropical troposphere has warmed in a way that is consistent with moist-adiabatic adjustment, in agreement with global climate model simulations.

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Source Institution:
Florida International University
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Sea Level Rise