Skip to main content
dPanther Home
|
Sea Level Rise
mydPanther Home
CMIP5 multi-model hindcasts for the mid-1970s shift and early 2000s hiatus and predictions for 2016-2035
Item menu
Print
Send
Add
Share
Description
Standard View
MARC View
Metadata
Usage Statistics
STANDARD VIEW
MARC VIEW
METADATA
USAGE STATISTICS
Permanent Link:
http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15052510/00001
Material Information
Title:
CMIP5 multi-model hindcasts for the mid-1970s shift and early 2000s hiatus and predictions for 2016-2035
Creator:
Gerald A. Meehl
Haiyan Teng
Affiliation:
National Center for Atmospheric Research
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union Publications
Publication Date:
2014
Language:
English
Subjects
Subjects / Keywords:
climate change
global warming
1970s
2000s (Decade)
long-range weather forecasting
Notes
Abstract:
Compared to uninitialized climate change projections, a multi-model ensemble from the CMIP5 10 year decadal prediction experiments produces more warming during the mid-1970s climate shift and less warming in the early 2000s hiatus in both the tropical Indo-Pacific region and globally averaged surface air temperature (TAS) in closer agreement with observations. Assuming bias in TAS has stabilized in the 10 year predictions, after bias adjustment, TAS anomalies for the 2016–2035 period in the 30 year predictions initialized in 2006 are about 16% less than the uninitialized projections. One contributing factor for the improved climate simulation is the bias adjustment, which corrects the models’ systematic errors and higher-than-observed decadal warming trend. Another important factor is the initialization with observations which constrains the ocean such that the starting points of the initialized simulations are close to the observed initial states.
Record Information
Source Institution:
Florida International University
Rights Management:
Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights.
dpSobek Membership
Aggregations:
Sea Level Rise
***This is default web skin for this SobekCM digital library.
Developed for the
University of Florida Digital Collections
For any questions about this system, email
Mark.V.Sullivan@gmail.com
Last updated January 2012 -
4.10.1