Weather extremes in a changing climate
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Material Information

Title:
Weather extremes in a changing climate hindsight on foresight
Creator:
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Disaster Risk Reduction Program, Florida International University (DRR/FIU) ( summary contributor )
Place of Publication:
Geneva, Switzerland
Publisher:
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Publication Date:
Copyright Date:
2011
Language:
English

Notes

Summary:
This document is a short note that discusses the future trajectory of climate anomalies and devastating weather events citing research by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It highlights the reality of climate change and the urgency to both reduce the production of greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the new realities of extreme weather. At the global level, research by the WMO has found that the ten warmest years in recorded history have all been within the past decade or so. This finding corresponds to a broader trend whereby each decade is warmer than the previous. Their research also found that the average global sea level is higher and rising at a faster rate than at any other time in the past three thousand years. The document moves on to chronicle specific occurrences of extreme weather that occurred in the past decade or so, comparing them to the historical record. These cases from 1998 to 2010 display the general instability of the global climate, depicting how long heat waves causing drought are often followed by episodes of torrential rainfall and flooding or extended winters of subzero temperatures. The decade also witnessed an increase in the number of tropical cyclones being generated each year, with a record of ten hitting Japan in 2004, and 2005 becoming the most active Atlantic hurricane season ever, with a record 27 named tropical storms, seven classified as major. From these cases, the document proceeds to highlight whether or not these events correspond to what the scientific community had predicted. In 1990, the First Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued an assessment report stating that periods of high temperature would likely become more frequent. A decade later, a third report predicted a rise in the intensity of rainy seasons in some regions along with dryer summers and extended periods of drought in others. It also discussed the potential for stronger and more frequent tropical storms and hurricanes. The past decade depicts the accuracy of such predictions. The document concludes by affirming that the magnitude, frequency, and duration of extreme weather events are the direct results of the Earth’s warming caused by increased human production of greenhouse gases. While reducing emissions will not stop planetary warming, it will slow the pace at which this process occurs. Along with lowering emissions, the document calls for helping reduce the vulnerability of societies to these extreme weather events. It discusses initiatives by the WMO to develop methods to estimate risks of future extreme weather, and calls for countries to strengthen their research and monitoring capabilities. ( English )
Subject:
Climate Change ( English )
Scope and Content:
Weather Extremes in a Changing Climate p. 1; Examples of recent weather extremes, 2001–2010 p. 2; Map: Some extreme events of 2001–2010 p. 7; Hindsight on foresight: Are the observed facts consistent with scientific assessments of climate? p. 11; Can we attribute the extreme events to climate change? p. 15; Losses due to extreme events: What we should do p. 17 ( English )
Citation/Reference:
(2010). Weather extremes in a changing climate: hindsight on foresight. World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Record Information

Source Institution:
Florida International University
Rights Management:
Refer to main document/publisher for use rights.
Resource Identifier:
FI13042431
9789263110756 ( isbn )

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Aggregations:
Disaster Risk Reduction