Preparing for High-impact, Low-probability Events
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Material Information

Title:
Preparing for High-impact, Low-probability Events Lessons from Eyjafjallaj
Creator:
Bernice Lee
Felix Preston
Gemma Green
Disaster Risk Reduction Program, Florida International University (DRR?FIU) ( summary contributor )
Royal Institute of International Affairs
Place of Publication:
London, England
Publisher:
Chatham House
Publication Date:
Copyright Date:
2012
Language:
English
Physical Description:
xi, 47 p. : ill. ; 30 cm.

Notes

Subject:
This report sets out the economic costs of high-impact, low-probability (HILP) events and how such impacts spread rapidly across sectors and countries in today’s globalized world. It looks at decision-making and coordination processes, the role of scientific uncertainty during these events, and the economic consequences involved. The frequency of HILP events in the last decade raises troubling questions about the way in which the international community responds to rapid and ‘slow-motion’ disasters which build up over several years. To explore our collective preparedness for HILP events, the report examines the impact of the ash cloud that spread across Europe in April 2010 as a result of volcanic eruptions on Iceland by interviewing key business leaders and experts to draw possible lessons learned for future HILP events. The report discusses ‘just-in-time’ business models and complex product supply chains and how lengthy disaster periods can cause economic losses to escalate rapidly as transport networks and major production centers are disrupted for more than a few days. The importance of business resilience is illustrated by highlighting the business sector’s response to the 2010 ash cloud, which included utilizing other forms of transport or transferring certain business functions to local offices where possible. The authors then explore two critical dimensions of the decision-making environment during periods of crisis: scientific and technological uncertainty, and the competing economic and political interests of key stakeholders. The importance of effective messaging and communication in the management of high-impact events is also emphasized. They draw on systemic analysis of social media to understand how the public discourse is shaped; highlights windows of opportunity to influence media messaging; and draws lessons for how the media should handle scientific uncertainties. The authors recommend that emergency preparation and response mechanisms are made transparent and subject to public accountability. Also, all actors, especially regulators and government bodies, should establish communications plans for moments of crisis. This would particularly involve establishing independent, high quality hubs (national or regional) for up-to-date risk notification and communication of scientific information pertaining to crisis. They further recommend working on measures to enhance business resilience as well as capacity to respond to shocks. ( English )
Subject:
Disaster Risk Management ( English )
Citation/Reference:
Lee, B., Felix, P., Gemma G. (2012). Preparing for high-impact, low-probability events: lessons from Eyjafjallajökull. Chatman House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs.
Statement of Responsibility:
A Chatham House Report

Record Information

Source Institution:
Florida International University
Rights Management:
All rights reserved by the source institution

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Aggregations:
Disaster Risk Reduction